Meteorologist Nick Mikulas
A winter weather advisory has been issued for the northern portions of the area, including, Grant, Sabine, Natchitoches, Winn, LaSalle, Catahoula, and Concordia Parishes. This advisory is in effect until noon Friday for some light freezing rain.
Saturday…
Saturday still looks like the best chance at a lull. Temperatures will still be near freezing, with occasional light precipitation in the area, so keep an eye on things, and be careful on the bridges and overpasses. Again, especially in our northern areas. This would usually have me in a bit of a weather tizzy, but this day is the least of my concern at this point.
Saturday still looks like the best chance at a lull. Temperatures will still be near freezing, with occasional light precipitation in the area, so keep an eye on things, and be careful on the bridges and overpasses. Again, especially in our northern areas. This would usually have me in a bit of a weather tizzy, but this day is the least of my concern at this point.
Sunday…
This is when things ramp up. Some models generate a fairly significant wave of precipitation on Sunday. Wind direction actually becomes significant on Sunday, as a reinforcing shot of Arctic air comes in and pretty much makes freezing rain or sleet the main mode of precipitation area wide by late Sunday. A north northeasterly wind will bring the coldest air in straight over the flat lands of the Mississippi Delta. This is significant because a northwesterly flow has to go over the Ouachita Mountains in Arkansas. That can effectively dam up, and slow down the cold air downstream of the mountains relative to the wind direction because Arctic Air is very shallow. Northwesterly flow means a delay of the cold air locally. Northeast means it comes in, unimpeded. If you have an airmass that is 1000 feet thick on the leading edge, and mountains/hills in the 1000-2500 foot range, that will hold the cold air up. As our air comes straight down from the north northeast, I expect things to change over fairly quickly, potentially bringing accumulating ice on Sunday. So have any preps done by Saturday. Gas for the generator, bread, milk, eggs, bacon… Now I’m just giving a shopping list. You know what to do. Prepare like you might not have power for several days. If the forecast is wrong, eat French Toast and bacon and make fun of me.
This is when things ramp up. Some models generate a fairly significant wave of precipitation on Sunday. Wind direction actually becomes significant on Sunday, as a reinforcing shot of Arctic air comes in and pretty much makes freezing rain or sleet the main mode of precipitation area wide by late Sunday. A north northeasterly wind will bring the coldest air in straight over the flat lands of the Mississippi Delta. This is significant because a northwesterly flow has to go over the Ouachita Mountains in Arkansas. That can effectively dam up, and slow down the cold air downstream of the mountains relative to the wind direction because Arctic Air is very shallow. Northwesterly flow means a delay of the cold air locally. Northeast means it comes in, unimpeded. If you have an airmass that is 1000 feet thick on the leading edge, and mountains/hills in the 1000-2500 foot range, that will hold the cold air up. As our air comes straight down from the north northeast, I expect things to change over fairly quickly, potentially bringing accumulating ice on Sunday. So have any preps done by Saturday. Gas for the generator, bread, milk, eggs, bacon… Now I’m just giving a shopping list. You know what to do. Prepare like you might not have power for several days. If the forecast is wrong, eat French Toast and bacon and make fun of me.
Monday…
This is the big show. Nothing has really changed here. It looks like 1/4 to 1 inch of liquid equivalent will fall. That may be freezing rain, or freezing rain mixed with sleet, but with temperatures in the 26-29 degree range, it will be a bridge closing, tree damaging, power disrupting event in all likelihood. I’ll always leave myself an out, but as the theme has been, I’m as confident as I get 3 1/2 days out. And this ice could fall on top of whatever may accumulate Sunday. I don’t see a major snow threat, but it’s not impossible that this ends as snow Monday afternoon. Do not bank on this.
This is the big show. Nothing has really changed here. It looks like 1/4 to 1 inch of liquid equivalent will fall. That may be freezing rain, or freezing rain mixed with sleet, but with temperatures in the 26-29 degree range, it will be a bridge closing, tree damaging, power disrupting event in all likelihood. I’ll always leave myself an out, but as the theme has been, I’m as confident as I get 3 1/2 days out. And this ice could fall on top of whatever may accumulate Sunday. I don’t see a major snow threat, but it’s not impossible that this ends as snow Monday afternoon. Do not bank on this.
Beyond…
Big time cold will filter in during, and behind the precipitation. Lows in the 12-18 degree range are likely Monday night. That’s a very hard freeze, and could cause plumbing issues for many. There is another storm slated for the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe. It’s too far out to get into, and we have several fish to fry before we get there. I’m aware of the threat, and watching closely. I’ll update in the morning.
Big time cold will filter in during, and behind the precipitation. Lows in the 12-18 degree range are likely Monday night. That’s a very hard freeze, and could cause plumbing issues for many. There is another storm slated for the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe. It’s too far out to get into, and we have several fish to fry before we get there. I’m aware of the threat, and watching closely. I’ll update in the morning.
Nick Mikulas is a former on air meteorologist for KALB in Alexandria LA, who now keeps all things meteorology updated on the social media side for Central Louisiana.
