for the northern 2/3 of the area, this will be a significant ice storm.

 

Ice on the trees and elevated surfaces, not a brick on the ground like the last one. It’ll add a layer of slickness to that, but it won’t pile up as easily. So power outages will become a problem. Some models are showing over 2 inches of rain in areas that will stay near, or below freezing. The silver lining is, heavy rain can’t all become ice. Some will just roll off the power lines and onto the ground. So if an area sees 2 inches of rain, and they see heavy rain for a few hours, they may *only* see 3/4-1 inch of ice accumulation on elevated surfaces. It’s not an instant process of freezing where every drop just freezes when it lands, especially when most areas will see the heaviest freezing rain fall when we are 28-32 degrees. If it were 24-27, that could be a different story. Regardless, this will be significant. Here’s a parish by parish forecast.

 

Rapides… Mostly freezing rain. Total ice accumulation 1/4-3/4 inch. Power outages likely.

Vernon… Mostly freezing rain. Total ice accumulation 1/4-3/4 inch. Power outages likely.

Avoyelles… Mostly freezing rain in the northwest half of the parish, freezing rain could change to very cold rain in areas like Simmesport and Cottonport. Total ice accumulation 1/8-1/2 inch. Power outages possible, especially in the northwest part of the parish.

Grant… Mostly freezing rain. Total ice accumulation 1/2-1 inch. Power outages likely.

Sabine… Mostly freezing rain, maybe a little sleet. Total ice accumulation 1/2-1 inch. Power outages likely.

Natchitoches… Mostly freezing rain, maybe a little sleet. Total ice accumulation 1/2-1 inch. Power outages likely.

Lasalle… Mostly freezing rain. Total ice accumulation 1/4-3/4 inch. Power outages likely.

Caldwell… Mostly freezing rain, maybe a little sleet. Total ice accumulation 1/2-1 inch. Power outages likely.

Catahoula… Mostly freezing rain. Total ice accumulation 1/4-3/4 inch. Power outages likely.

Concordia…. Mostly freezing rain. Total ice accumulation 1/4-3/4 inch. Power outages likely.

Tensas… Mostly freezing rain. Total ice accumulation 1/4-3/4 inch. Power outages likely.

Beauregard… Freezing rain likely changing to rain in the afternoon. Especially in southern, and southeastern parts of the parish. Total ice accumulation 1/8 to 1/2 inch, with highest totals in the northwest part of the parish. Power outages possible, especially in the northwestern part of the parish.

Allen… Freezing rain early changing to rain. Trace to 1/4” likely, scattered power outages possible in the northern part of the parish.

Evangeline….Freezing rain early changing to rain. Trace to 1/4” likely, scattered power outages possible in the northern part of the parish.

St. Landry… Mostly rain, but freezing rain possible early in the event in the northern part of the parish. Up to 1/8 inch of ice possible before it changes to rain in the northern part of the parish. I don’t expect major power outage issues in St. Landry Parish.

 

Light precipitation move out by late afternoon or early evening. Roads are already hot garbage, so don’t try traveling if possible. Yes, they were passable in many areas yesterday, but we are back in the mid 20s, and the sun stopped working its magic. The best case models show areas south of a Leesville to Alexandria to Jonesville line warming up to just above freezing in the afternoon.

 

I’d say 70-80% of ensembles and short range models keep us at our below 32 for the whole event.