Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible Monday across portions of Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest Arkansas, and Northwest Louisiana, but begin to increase during the afternoon and especially during the evening, ahead of a strong upper level storm system that will move into Western Oklahoma and West Texas. Warmer, humid, and unstable air will begin to spread into the region late Monday afternoon through Monday night, as these showers and thunderstorms become widespread Monday evening and shift east across the area. Some of these storms may become severe Monday night, especially over East Texas and Western Louisiana, where damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes are possible. The primary threat will transition over to locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding late Monday night as the showers and thunderstorms slow their eastward movement somewhere over Southern Arkansas, North Louisiana, and Deep East Texas. Widespread rainfall amounts of two to four inches are expected through Tuesday afternoon, with isolated higher amounts in excess of six inches possible, which could result in flash flooding. The severe and flash flood threat will diminish from west to east Tuesday as the parent upper level storm system ejects northeast into the Central Plains.
Cooler and drier conditions will settle back into the region for the remainder of the week into next weekend.
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON…
WHAT…Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE…Portions of Arkansas, Louisiana and Texas, including the following counties and parishes, in Arkansas, Columbia, Lafayette, Nevada and Union. In Louisiana, Bienville, Bossier, Caddo, Caldwell, Claiborne, De Soto, Grant, Jackson, La Salle, Lincoln, Natchitoches, Ouachita, Red River, Sabine, Union, Webster and Winn. In Texas, Angelina, Harrison, Nacogdoches, Panola, Rusk, Sabine, San Augustine and Shelby.
WHEN…From this evening through Tuesday afternoon.
IMPACTS…Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.
ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Thunderstorms will increase Monday night and will not entirely exit all areas until Tuesday afternoon with widespread 2 to 4 inches and isolated amounts in excess of 6 inches.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT TUESDAY…
WHAT…Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph
WHERE…Portions of north central and northwest Louisiana, southwest Arkansas and east and northeast Texas.
WHEN…From 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM CDT Tuesday.
IMPACTS…Strong winds and rough waves on area lakes will create hazardous conditions for small craft.
Boaters on area lakes should use extra caution since strong winds and rough waves can overturn small craft.