Gulf Storm Update – Cristobal Weakens to a Tropical Depression; Will Restrengthen in Gulf This Weekend

Cristobal weakened to a tropical depression this morning due to land interaction with Mexico, but this was expected.

Forecast for Cristobal
Cristobal will move back into the Gulf tomorrow afternoon or tomorrow night.

Once back over the Gulf, restrengthening is still anticipated. However, mid-level dry air will increase as Cristobal moves into the northern Gulf, and this should slow/halt intensification.

Model guidance is still indicating a Louisiana landfall sometime late Sunday or early Monday.

Cristobal will likely be a tropical storm at landfall. However, a minimal category 1 hurricane can’ yet be ruled out, as this is suggested by the ECMWF and UKMET models.

Impacts
Cristobal will most likely be east-weighted with an exapnsive/broad wind field on approach to the Gulf Coast. Impacts will extend well away from the center of circulation.

Heavy rain and tropical storm force winds will be possible from southeast Texas/Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. Additionally, storm surge will be likely from Louisiana to the Florida Big Bend.

The exact placement, timing and magnitude of these hazards is dependent on the eventual track/intensity of Cristobal, which is overall uncertain.

Interests from southeast Texas to the Florida Panhandle should continue to monitor the progress of Cristobal.


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